2000 Pretenders / Contenders

Welcome everyone to the sixth season of CARP. As we eneter the new millenium of the CARP league I am struck by the dramatic changes in technology that have transformed our league which commenced just 5 years ago. When CARP began TQstats would send a single e-mail per week with the standings and stats of the teams. Today we have daily updates on a web page that allows our own transactions and even projects the season winner. Not to mention that some of us have dishes that allow us to watch any game or computers that let us listen. Truely astounding when you think about it. Yet with all these advances there is still no more accurrate prediction of the final standings than The Man. Thus, despite the fresh snow on the ground here are The Man's first installment of the Pretenders/Contenders 2000. As always, please no wagering.

8TH PLACE: THE WASHINGTON BROWNSKINS
LAST YEAR:4TH

Key to Success: The front of the rotation is strong. Colon is a #1, Sele and solid #2 and both Burba and Rupe will provide good numbers if not overly fantastic. In fact, all but Rupe are serious threats to win 20+ games. The C position is also above average. The Skins' re-uped on Assy (that's what Juan calls him) and he and Hernandez form a good combo at the backstop.

Key to Distress: Simply put: depth. The Skins' ould kick ass in a AA roto league. That's the problem. At the expense of players who actually get AB's the Skins are stocked to the gills with prospects. Even assuming the Castilla is the DH (once he emerges from the DL) and Guzman is the SS (instead of Soriano) the Skins are tanking 2 batting positions. The same is true for the rotation. Anderson, Mulder and Weaver all look to put up numbers in 2001-02. The Skins need to buy a calender. If anybody gets hurt or goes down the Skins will have to swallow long and hard and put Beck in (once he too comes off the DL) because he is the ONLY major league pitcher drafted in the taxi round.

DRAFT/MANAGEMENT C+/B-
Despite a last minute snafu that rendered the Skins' little more than a disembodied voice over a speakerphone a la' Charlie of Charlie's Angels fame, the Skins had an above average draft. Due to incessant prospect stockpiling the Skins' did little to address their appalling lack of depth in either pitching or hitting. Mondesi is the exception. The Skins need big things from him and he will deiver to a point. Its no accident that despite 3 straight 30hr seasons Mondesi have never driven in 100. Look for 38hr 100rbi but only 22sb. Olerud is fine but $32? His days of .363 are long gone. 30hr 1B's are a dime a dozen and this guy's hoping for 25. Even when Castilla comes off the DL the over/under for hrs between him and Olerud is 50.

Player to watch: Colon, watch him blossom into a dominate #1

Grab a beer when: Ledee steps in the box. Prove me wrong punk.

7TH PLACE: THE WAVERLY/SOMEPLACE IN MAINE WARTHOGS
LAST YEAR: 6TH

KTS: Healthy pitching and quick callups. The Hogs come off a year in 99' in which the staff won only 70 games(and Irabu had 11 of those). Ouch! Nomo and Witasick were both good pickups. Expect adjustments from both from the early weeks. Nomo not as good as his current numbers nor is Witasick as bad. Erickson (rusty) and Alvarez (fat) need to pitch like its a contract year for them. Meanwhile the Hogs are banking on either Yarnall or Garland to get more than a cup of coffee at the show this year, more like a 64oz Stuckey truck stop special.

KTD: An unbalanced offense. Too many guys who can't hit for avg. (Vaughn, Encarnacion, Easly Valentin) combined with power pretenders such as O'Neil, Bell, and Guillen to mount an attack that would scare most slo-pitch softball leagues. In addition, the Hogs lost 50+ steals with the defection of Feebles and Hunter and they are replaced with O'Neil and Valentin.
That's like moving from the Hilton to the Super 8. PS...if the rotation can't stay healthy its Rapp and Mercedes to the rescue.

DRAFT/MANAGEMENT B/C+
Nomo, Trach, and Witasick for $8 is a steal. The Hogs certainly got value, however, the actual impact of those players may end up being not far out of proportion to their price. Offseason acquistions such as Alvarez and Mo Vaughn for the likes of Richie Sexson do NOT win GM of the year awards.

Player to watch: Milton, will seamlessly assume the role of ace once Radke is traded.

Grab a beer when: Rapp takes the mound. Does that Pepto come in 32oz?

6TH PLACE: THE CHELSEA "PINK" PIRATES
LAST YEAR: 7TH

KTS: Despite the loss of Edmunds due to the fascist Commish and his evil minions, the Pink Pirates has a super OF. Lofton comes in for Damon to strengthen a OF anchored by budding super star Ordonez (look for 40hr 125rbi). For a no name rotation, the Pirates have the chance to have one of the better staffs in CARP. Rosado is the only #1 but Suppan, Nagy, Loaiza and even Yan are all capable of 10+ wins. If Thompson comes back healthy in May and provide 25 starts the front office can begin to address the fatal flaw of the club.

KTD: Both the infield and the bullpen are too fundamentally retarded to allow the Pirates to finish any higher. Evans, already stung by pre-season heckling at the hands of drunk Philadelphians, will be exposed for the lame-ass that he is. I mean this guy was released by the Jays when Tony Fernandez was at 3rd. Brosius is already hurt and Gonzalez is gearing up for his annual "I don't suck" campaign. Good luck. I've seen the numbers, but I still don't think the Big Skirt has regained his old form. Izzy is an interesting pick up, but asking him to carry the load alone with Cordero and Guardado as your help is simply asking too much.

DRAFT/MANAGEMENT B+/B
The entire outfield acquisition of Lofton/Buhner/Martinez was perhaps the coup of the draft. Lofton has already put the rest of the league on notice that last year's numbers were an aberration. Even getting only 400-450 abs this year a healthy Buhner could get 35hr. Martinez is solid year in year out. I also like Fick, $7 is a little high but he should also see decent abs. Thompson/Wheeler/Zito are a great blend of youth and veteran stuff.
We can finally look at this Pirate team as a true reflection of the ownership tandem of Dennis "DUI" Hirsch and his cohort Owen "Make your own joke here" Ayre. No longer can they complain about the team they inherited from the late Dr. Glahn. While they deserve praise for their draft they cannot escape the fact that they traded the best backstop in CARP and current MVP away for the Big Skirt and Trot Nixon. Not to mention they have the only current CARP player with a halo brace on their roster.

Player to watch: Ordonez. He may be the trendy pick, but there is no denying his talent and potential.

Grab a beer when: Alex Gonzalez digs in. This guy has been the whipping boy for The Man for years. Nothing has changed.

5TH PLACE: THE BELTWAY BUCKOS
LAST YEAR: 5TH

KTS: Vastly improved outfield and strong front rotation. Pitching has always been the calling card of the Buckos. Their staff from 95' still holds most of the CARP pitching records. This season is no different. The staff returns every crucial member with the exception of Erickson for the 2000 campaign, a staff which won 99 games last year. Wells and Moyer are automatic. Halladay looks to step in for Erickson and Rogers early returns are scary.(look for 18 wins and era/whip 3.80/1.30). The outfiled is greatly improved with Everett and Salmon. Remember the Surhoff led the team with 28hr last year. However Everett/Salmon are good for 60+hrs and Grieve cna be 30+ if he can put together a full season like the second half he had for the Buckos last year after the trade (25hr 74rbi in 367abs).

KTD: Batista saved the infield from being a total disaster. I know about Alomar but the rest? Ripkin might just retire after he gets his 3,000 hit, Ortiz has yet to fulfill his potential and must deal with the constant threat of bench time with that crusty old bastard up in Minn and Cruz is, well he's a pretty good $1 ss, nuff said. What's that? Oh, right Tony Clark. Now I would be lying if I said I wasn't a believer at one point. I mean this guy is 6'7" with this giant power stroke. Problem is that long stroke leads to long slumps, those slumps have also been referred to as April, May, and June. And now Clark doesn't have Tiger stadium to kick around any more. Add to that a weak top of the order in Detroit and Igor gobbling up many of his rbi and its goodbye 35hr 120rbi seasons for Mr. Clark. I'll take a wild stab at .275 28hr 90rbi. The infield narrowly dooms the Buckos to Pretender status.

DRAFT/MANAGEMENT A-/A-
In the South I think they call it playing possum. I swear to god that's what the Buckos seem to do year in year out at the draft. I mean I have a great deal of respect for the team. After all they are only 1 of 3 teams on the trophy. But sometimes you get the feeling the Buckos are not exactly on top of things. You talk with them in the offseason about players and they don't always know which team they are on sometimes. Then they show up at the draft right off the plane from Grenada of all freakin places and walk away with Everett, Batista, Salmon, and Wetteland and arguably don't overpay for a single one. The Buckos has demonstrated that slow and steady sometimes wins the race. The shrewdest trade of 99 was Grieve and Halladay for Cone and Lofton. A trade looking to pay big dividends in 2000. The Buckos don't receive a perfect grade in large part because of the youth movement?! the Buckos undertook in the taxi. I mean please...Stanley, Polonia, Fassero, Bordick. Who is the team sponsor, Depends?

Player to watch: Halladay. Not so much for a breakout season, that comes in 2001, but because he is crucial to the Buckos staff and must put of good numbers.

Grab a beer when: CJ Nitowski toes the rubber. This guy slipped something into somebody's drink to in a shot in the Tiger's rotation. Look out for serious whiplash.

Well, here it is at last. I know that many of you thought that the Man would not deliver the goods this year, but after having to deal with the annoying distractions of work and taxes here are The Pretenders 2000, as inevitable as Canseco pulling a hammy. Before I get to the teams I want to make clear that one reason it took me so long to put together the Pretenders this year is that the league is so wide open. Really any of these four teams could win this year and it should be at least a three team race right down to the final weekend this year. Anyway, somebody has to lose and somebody will carry the trophy home (which looks quite nice on top of my armoire).

4TH PLACE: THE PHILADELPHIA CHEESESTEAKS
LAST YEAR: 3RD PLACE

KTS: Deep pitching and an improved infield. The brothers Martinez and Mr. Finley are as strong as any 1-3 in CARP. Between Finley and Pedro they already have 57k's in just 6 starts. You do the math. Ramon will be fine once the weather warms up. He could easily post 15+ wins. Carpenter and Meche ar still a year away from putting up impressive roto numbers but most owners would love to have them now. The big problem with the pitching staff is the over-stuffed beanie baby Jaret Wright. Either the Steaks know something the Man doesn't (impossible you say?) or perhaps there is a seceret gay romance brewing, but how does this guy make the rotation with Oliver, Parque and Mays on the bench? I mean this guy sucks big time.
I've been saying it since his rookie year. He's got a nice flat 95mph fastball and he's willing to pitch inside (of your helmet) but that doesn't cut it at the show. It went almost unnoticed at the draft that the Steaks sat around waiting for everyone else to finnish before scooping up DeShields and Fryman for a total of $3. DeShields is on a mission and it looks like he will steal 40+. Combined with Delgado and Randa the Steaks infield will not be the reason that the team fades in the summer.

KTD: That honor goes to the OF. The poor Steaks, that Grebeck thing is for real. Puckett goes blind, McGuire, Brown and Junior all go NL, what's an owner to do. Apparently hang your hopes on a Higgenson comeback. I mean the Steaks sometimes look like the island of misfit toys, refuge for players who once showed promise but now cling to the Steaks in the hope of reviving their stalled careers. Mr. Higgenson have you met Mr. Bottalico?
At Comerica park Higgy might finish the year with single digit HR's. The catchers on this team suck as well. LeCroy will be a stud, but not this year. Who the hell is Mark Johnson? If you need a Boston catcher who doesn't play, talk to the Steaks.

DRAFT/MANAGEMENT A-/B+
The Steaks had perhaps the second best draft next to the Buc's. As mentioned before, DeShields and Fryman cement that infield. Cruz and Fullmer cannot be ignored. With Stewart still suffering from a nagging hammy from last season it is crucial that Cruz develop into an everyday player this year. He has always been known as a cripple hitter (see his 8hr) but still has shown an inability to hit the breaking pitch (see his .230 avg). Fullmer is looking to have a breakout year once he got out of Montreal. Sasaki is the gamble. No doubt he has the chance to pick up 30+ saves. The problem is that Pinella likes to ruin his pen. I would worry about his overuse, espicially down the stretch. Sasucki is coming off surgery and has only 3 saves in 8 appearances thus far this season. The Steaks will need those saves with Timlin and the human napalm bomb Bottalico in their pen. Smart vets like JValentin and Dave Martinez add valuable bench stength. This may be the last year that the Steaks can hold on to Pedro. He will be $70 next year. Unfortunaely his supporting cast is just not strong enough to win this year. Pedro's best chance for a CARP ring may lie in being traded in August to the eventaul CARP champ, ah, whomever that is.

Player to watch: Finley. Given the chance to shine on a contender Finley will win 20 for the first time.

Grab a beer when: Oliver takes his turn. How did this guy convince anybody that he was worth the money?

3RD PLACE: THE TEXAS MULES/STEERS
LAST YEAR: 8TH PLACE

KTS: Catcher and what has quietly become the second best infield in the CARP. With Pudge and Johnson there is just no competition. Posada and Varitek are both emerging stars but will never be even half the roto stud that Pudge already is. I mean this is a catcher who will hit 30+ homers with 100 rbi 100 runs and bat .300+, that's good for an OF and absolutely unheard of for a catcher in the AL. Despite a slow start Mr. Wolfe has assembled an infield that should keep the Mules in contender status for the next several years. Glaus and Chavez are the two best young 3B's in the game. Tejada will soon join the likes of ARod, Nomar, and Jeter as a legitimate 25-30 hr SS and Knoblauch will post his normal 15hr 120run and 25sb season. Even the weak links in the IF, Walker and Tino, are above average roto players who will still put up decent numbers this year. By the end of the season Koch will have established himself as the second best closer in the AL behind Rivera. That is important because Howry is starting to look over his shoulder at Foulke, the future closer in Chicago.

KTD: For a brief time, one night actually when I had a few too many harpoons, I was tempted to write the classic worst to first story of the Mules. Two things will not allow that to happen this year. First, the pitching. An eleventh hour trade with the Brewers prevented the Mules staff from becoming a joke. While Pettitte, Helling, and Escobar lend a certain respectability to the staff, none are the roto stud that the Mule's need to win this year. Hudson is still looking to regain the form that allowed him to go 11-2 in the majors last year, and Garcia, on the brink of establishing himself in the AL, may now be lost for at least 2 months with a fracture in his leg. When you're only answer to such early season setbacks is to start an Angel pitcher like Hill or Dickson its time to start thinking about finishing in the money and not picking your CARP MVP.
Second, the OF. Mr. Wolfe has placed a huge burden on a very young and inexperienced OF to produce some big numbers. Konerko is the grey beard of the group at 25. Kapler still has to figure out how to hit breaking balls. Mateo remains 1-2 years away from being a star, and Sexton still has not emerged from a month long slump. No doubt that these players will be impact players, but with the exception of Konerko, none of them will post impressive CARP numbers this year.

DRAFT/MANAGEMENT B/A
The Mules front office has been the favorite whipping boy for the Man the past several years, this year the mantle was passed to the Skins. The draft grade is a result of the fact that the Mules only had two players to draft. I think that Knobby for $23 is an A while Cone for $24 is a C and thus we have a B. Most of the taxi round was hit or miss. For every Segui there was a Baines and for every Karsay there was a Hamilton. The management grade is the result of the most successful offseason of any CARP team in recent memory. The Mules finshed last in CARP last year and in the offseason moved to acquire: Pettitte, Helling, Escobar, Sexton, Tejada, Pudge, and Tino. That isn't a makeover its a freakin team transplant. At the same time the Mules managed to keep their salary structure intact. Only one player, Pudge, will be over $40 next year and their most expensive hitter will be Knobby at $24. While the Mules might only finish in the money this year, for the first time since 95' the CARP trophy will not be the exclusive property of either the Creepers or Brewers in 2001.

Player to watch: Konerko. When nobody believed, the Wolfe had faith and that will be rewarded with a 35 hr season.

Grab a beer when: Cameron's up. Granted its unfair to expect him to be the next Griffey. But you can't bat leadoff and expect to thrive when you hit 230 and don't take walks. Have fun batting 9th.

2ND PLACE: THE BRIGHTON CREEPERS
LAST YEAR: 2ND PLACE

KTS: Still the best offense in CARP. The Creepers are the perfect balance of power and speed up and down their lineup. The infield is the best in CARP. Palmeiro, Palmer, and Durham are all the best at their position in the AL. Erstad, proving that last year was a fluke, has greatly reduced his milk intake and is having an MVP season. Feebles, a steal at the draft for $10 is the sparkplug to a emerging Royals offense. In the OF Ramirez is automatic, throw in that fact that its a contract season for him and watch out. Justice might have one more good season left, Damon will challenge for 20/20 and Canseco will not rest until hit hits 600 hrs and has perfect hair. Remember that this offense has not yet hit its stride. Gonzalez is struggling with his new team (6rbi in April?) and Stairs, despite the fact that he looks and plays like a slo-pitch softball player will both come around eventaully. Fordyce has yet to play and I haven't even mentioned Jeter and Posada. All in all the Creeper offense will be ripping the cover off the ball all season and that will make the CARP championship go right down to the final day, when the Creepers will fall just short of the championship. That will not be the fault of the Pen, the best in CARP with the one two punch of Troy "Decaf" Percival and Lowe, the best closers in the league not named Mariano or Billy.

KTD: Why, despite a photo finsh for the CARP trophy, won't it be the Creepers year? Chicks dig the long ball, but pitching wins championships. Going into the draft the Creepers needed pitching desperately. They came away with Bottenfield, Baldwin and Tomko. Not three names that inspire a manager with dreams of glory. However, as April has unfolded the Creeper troika have proved to be more that servicable. Baldwin is 4-0, this from a guy who usually doesn't win his fourth until the Fourth of July. Th problem has been and will continue to be with the rest of the rotation. Guzman is on the DL and is keeping a seat warm for Sirotka. Sirotka is a good but not great pitcher with exceptional control, that is his strength. Last year in 32 starts he had a era of 4.00. This year in April--17ip 6.23era and 1.92 whip. He's hurt and will not admit it. Ponson and Tomko can both emerge as good #2 or #3 starters in the AL but they still need time and this year will be a lot of quality starts followed by those ugly lines of 4ip and 5er. Clemens is the big question mark, and the Creepers season may be in his hands. Does he have one more CY Young left in him? Right now the numbers are inconclusive (3.69era but 1.51 whip). The Man thinks that while the Rocket will rebound from last year's disappointment there will not be a record 6th Cy for the trophy case. Think 16wins, 4.00 era and 1.40 whip with 200k's.

DRAFT/MANAGEMENT B/B+
While Baldwin/Tomko/Bottenfield may not be what the Creepers had hoped for out of the draft they can't complain about their combined salary of $6. Justice was cheap at $2 but it remains to be seen if he can put together a full healthy season with good numbers. Despite his groin injury, selecting Cattalanatto in the 5th round may have been the steal of the taxi. This guy could hit 20 hrs playing a full season and he can play 2nd, 3rd, and OF. If it weren't for Oates, perhaps the worst manager in the AL, he would be starting instead of filling in for Evans and Alicea. The rest of the Creeper bench is a tantalizing list of talanted players who have yet to fulfill expectations (Anderson and Branyan) or those who won't even get the chance until late 2001 (Drew and Colombe). The Creepers remain one of the best, if not the best evaluators of talent in CARP. Even with the offensive juggernaut that was the 99' Creeper offense, GM Griffiths obtained Palmeiro, Damon, and uber-prospect Vernon Wells in the off-season. While visions of spring training 500ft hr from Sexton still linger, Kip Wells looks to be the number 1 in Chicago as soon as next year.

Player to watch: As if I have to point out Erstad. Coming off a season in which he hit .260, the thirtsy one already has more multi-hit games in April than some players get in a season. MVP candidate in he played for a contender and not the weak-ass Angels.

Grab a beer when: Guzman comes off the DL. He has not been healthy in years. He's not healthy now and when he comes back he has to pitch in that homer friendly monstrosity in Tampa--you have been warned.

1ST PLACE: THE CAPITOL CITY BREWERS
LAST YEAR: CARP CHAMPION

KTS: Somebody has to win, and somebody has to lose, and somebody has to make the call. In the closest season in years the Brewers will take home the trophy for the 4th time in 6 seasons when Sidney Ponson is rocked for 8er in 3ip in a meaningless season finale against the A's. You can never be too rich or too thin. You can never have too much beer stored in your car hole and you can't have too much starting pitching. While the Brewers don't have too much, they are the deepest and most talented staff in CARP. No team can boast 3 #1's like Mussina, El Duque and Radke. That's half the staff. Olivares and Heredia are both underrated starters on a good team.
Ortiz will have his struggles early on but when Saberhagen returns in May Ortiz will become the #7 on the staff. Although it's not yet May, the Brewers staff is already beginning to dominate the ERA/WHIP standings like Bucko staff's of old. This Brewer lineup will not stir memories of the 97 team which swept every offensive catagory, but they will be right behind the Creepers most of the year. It all starts with Nomar and ARod, the class of CARP. At the corner the Brewers just continue to reload. Thome and Giambi are each threats for 40+hr. The OF, once Greer returns in from the DL in 2-3 weeks is as good as anybody's. GWilliams has been a pleasant surprise early on offsetting the sophmore slump of MVP in waiting Beltran.

KTD: The bullpen. Rivera is the best in the league but a #2 has to emerge. Shuey is confirming GM LaTour's worst fears at this point. Not only has has blown every save opportunity thus far but Karsay performace makes him look even worse. Zimmerman is a fluke and Moreno is months away from even returning to the pen for KC. The Brewers were counting on an excess of starting pitching that could be traded for a closer but Mahay has been a bust and Wakefield was sent to the bullpen for long relief the day after the draft. How long can the Brewers survive with just Rivera? The bench has also been exposed early on. When Greer went down the Brewers had nobody to go to and have only 2 picks in the first 2 supplemental drafts. In the absence of a trade, the Brewers will need productive numbers from Norton and or Lamb and Piatt. That's a tall order from that bunch.

DRAFT/MANAGEMENT B-/A-
It was feast or famine for the Brewers at this year's draft. Kennedy has thus far justified the bidding war between the Brewers and Creepers for a 2nd baseman who had never player a full season. He's on pace for .300/12hr/35sb. However, going to the wall hamstrung the Brewers for the rest of the draft as they watched helplessly as good players slipped through their hands once their bid reached $2. Thus it became bargain/bust hunting. For every GWilliams there was a Jaha, for every Molina a Lamb. Just more pressure on the pitching staff. Speaking of which, the Brewers continued to stockpile young stud pitchers. After picking Sabathia off the Creepers last year the Brewers managed to grab future stars Baez and Kim in the first two rounds. Baez is still getting his shit together, but Kim is dominating AAA and could be with Boston in July while C.C. already has 38k's in 28ip in A ball. Piatt, quickly gaining confidence during his callup makes up for the wasted pick on punk-ass Leyritz in the 9th round. You don't win 3 championships in 5 years unless you know what you're doing. The Brewers are not afraid to pull the trigger on a major deal. Last year in was Thome and El Duque. This offseason it was Giambi/Shuey and Pena (ouch!). If the Brewers stumble during the summer don't be surprised to see another blockbuster trade involving some of the young Brewer talent to capture that last CARP Cup for Captain Belle.

Player to watch: Belle. It's probably the last go round for the Capt. He wants another ring, badly. Once the weather gets warm watch out, he has a 55hr season in him yet.

Grab a beer when: Jaha limps to the plate. The Brewers were seduced by his 99' numbers and chose to ignore his injury history. You reap what you sow, in this case that would be .129 0hr 1rbi 3runs.