2001 Pretenders / Contenders

Pretenders:

With only days remaining before the start of the regular season and the seventh glorious CARP championship run, the league has already seen its fair share of excitement. For the first time CARP held its Spring draft outside the cold clutches of the Northeast and in the warm rainy confines of Florida. Despite the new location (and bathrobes) the draft was one again marked by excessive drinking and strip clubs.

Thus without further adieu, here is the first installment of the Man's predictions for the 2001 CARP League; The Pretenders. Remember, despite past accuracy, these prediction are for entertainment purposes only, no wagering please.

7th Place: THE BERWICK WARTHOGS

THEME SONG: Satisfaction (I can't get no)

KEYS TO SUCCESS: The Hogs starting rotation is the best it has ever had. Colon and Milton are both budding aces who could produce 35+ wins between them. Moehler is one of the more underrated pitchers in the AL and both Ohka and Castilla are solid if unspectacular. Hernandez still should have a couple of years left and is a lock for 30+ saves in KC, solving the Hogs lingering closer situation. Dye bolsters an aging OF which has lacked a significant power hitter.

KEYS TO DISTRESS: How old is Sandy Alomar? Can he return to his past glory? Do strippers take drink tokens? Zaun starts the year on the DL. On second thought, maybe that's a plus. The infield is a AA meeting in the ER. Caminti, who just broke out of an 0-30 slump, will be off the wagon before Memorial day. Meanwhile Palmer can't raise his arm and may be unable to even DH on opening day. The middle is a series of question marks. Offerman and Easley will try to reverse the declining numbers and Guillen will try to prove that he wasn't the runt of the litter in the RJohnson trade. Sweeney would have to hit 80HR's to make up for his teammates.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Jones. Had a breakthrough last year with .285 19/75. Look for increased power (25HR) and more steals (only 7 last year).

GRAB A BEER WHEN: Kohlmeier comes in. Yes I've seen his minor league numbers. I've also seen his 1.7 whip from last year. It's just a matter of time before that guy becomes a human torch.

DRAFT GRADE: B+ Although he had to pay, GM Haskell did come away with both Dye and Colon, two of the most sought after players. Hernandez was a steal @$14 and I love Knoblauch in the taxi, errors don't count in CARP. I won't even get into the whole Nick Johnson debacle.

6th Place: THE CHELSEA PIRATES

THEME SONG: Whipping Post

KEYS TO SUCCESS: Catcher, corner and a pair of young A's. Thomas and Thome bring an air of respectability to the beleaguered Pirates. With both Huff and Crede in the wings this might emerge as a formidable corner in the near future. Melusky (starting the year on the DL) looks like he could put up solid numbers, the problem is that he can't catch, a problem for a catcher. Fletcher is a stud, forever playing in the shadow of Pudge. In Zito and Ortiz the Pirates have the next Finley and Alomar, high praise indeed. Whether or not GM "Hershey" Hirsch can build a winning team around them remains to be seen.

KEYS TO DISTRESS: Pitching, pitching, and Bud Selig. After Zito, Loaiza, and maybe Wilson, the Pirates staff is uglier than those two chicks at the Green Iguana on Fri. night. Who is Travis Harper and why is he on GM Hirsch's pre-draft interview tape? Sturtz, this is a man who can't beat out Ken Hill for a job! Six players, nearly 25%, of the Pirates roster are Devil Rays. Now I know that no one really knows what will happen when re-alignment comes, but do you want to risk that many players? The Pirates have just the right mix of expensive veterans, Thomas, Martinez, and Lofton, and bad young players, Gonzalez, Stynes, Giambi(the bad one), to finish sixth.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Ortiz. The runaway ROY will put up .290 15/60/80.

GRAB A BEER WHEN: Gonzalez is too easy a target, I'm sick of him being the Man's whipping boy. So grab a beer when Glynn takes the mound. His stuff is crap, but Texas pitching is so bad he's guaranteed to get plenty of those 4ip 6er starts that fellow owners love to see.

DRAFT GRADE: C+ The Pirates did manage to snag top prospects Crede and Hamilton, but only after the evil GM LaTour had bid them up and ruined their farm eligibility. I like Fletcher/Melusky for $12, but what are you saving the money for? The Pirates went into the draft with as much money as anybody and didn't get a SINGLE IMPACT PLAYER. Note to owners; two hours on Jet Blue watching ESPN spring training reports does not qualify as acceptable draft preparation

5th Place: THE CAPITOL CITY BREWERS

THEME SONG: You're Time Is Gonna Come

KEYS TO SUCCESS: The corner and health. In the wake of the blockbuster trade that sent Mussina and Bernie to the Steers the Brewers finally landed a 3B in Chavez who can complement MVP Giambi. Add the chronically underachieving Ortiz to the mix (look for breakout 20+ HR year) and what has been a weakness for past Brewer teams is suddenly a strength. Even with the loss of CARP MVP Mussina, the Brewers starters are surprisingly deep. Radke, El Duque, and Ortiz are all #1's, at least in theory. Mulder and Heredia anchor a strong A's staff. Nomar looks like he'll miss at least 3 months, Kennedy starts the season on the DL and El Duque has not been healthy. However, everything could break just right and each could play a full season......right.

KEYS TO DISTRESS: The OF, once the best in CARP has fallen on tough times. Soriano will quickly be moved to MI, Greer and GWilliams, old as they are, make gay-boy Brady look young and nimble. Vinny Catilla? Just what the Brewers need at DH another old guy with fading power and no speed. Where have you gone Albert Belle?

PLAYER TO WATCH: Beltran. The lone harpoon among a case of schlitz in the Brewer outfield will bounce back with a huge season. He's been on fire in the spring. Look for it to continue with .287 24/75/100 +20SB.

GRAB A BEER WHEN: A man named Brady steps to the plate. If not for Belle's retirement Brady might be riding the bench. Did this guy really hit 50HR's one year?

DRAFT GRADE: A- Considering that the Brewers are playing for 2002, the draft was a huge success. Focusing on younger players the Brewers snagged a core of future stars in Soriano, RAnderson, Borchard, Lopez, and Crawford. Mulder was a bargain @$6. Both Hatteburg and Ortiz should put up respectably numbers given their $1 salary. The problems, Castilla at 3B/DH and no closer. 2002 can't come soon enough for the three time champs.

COMING SOON: THE CONTENDERS

It's down to the Final Four.

4th Place: THE BELTWAY BUCKOS

THEME SONG: I Fought The Law And The Law Won

KEYS TO SUCCESS: The bullpen and a revamped OF/DH narrowly place the Buckos among the Contenders. Jones and Foulke are the cream of the crop. The outfield contains as much power as any in CARP. Mondesi, Everett, Salmon and Grieve will all cross the 30HR plateau this season. Cedeno is the wild card. With Mondesi as the only other legitimate threat to steal on the roster, (Feebles has yet to prove he can stay healthy) the Buckos need 50+ steals from him, looks like another Goodwin, but with this OF he can afford to take the risk. The Buckos also enjoy perhaps the strongest bench in CARP. Richard, Rivas, Bordick, and Piatt are all available for the lineup or as trade bait.

KEYS TO DISTRESS: The infield consists of the blind leading the lame. Feebles' history is well knowna and Clark, another Bucko favorite, continues to suffer from back problems and slow starts (starts being the months of April and May). People love or hate Batista, the Man is in the latter category. I think pitchers have figured him out. Look for an avg. around .250 with decreased power numbers. While the top of the order was significantly enhanced by the addition of Burba and Sele, the rest of the staff is a mishmash of recycled vets, Hamilton and "Sticky" Mlicki, and unproven kids, Redman, Rekar etc. The Buckos are a major trade away from scaring the top three.

PLAYER TO WATCH: The Big Cat. Although he doesn't fit well with the Buckos, look for a monster year. Healthy and well protected in the Texas lineup the Man sees 40HR and 100+RBI

GRAB A BEER WHEN: Hairston steps in. This guy suffers from classic good player/bad roto syndrome. Don;t be surprised when Rivas takes his spot and the Buckos release him in the 2nd Supplemental.

DRAFT GRADE: A Nobody consistently aces the bid draft like GM Buchanan. Granted he had money to spend, but he came away with quality players at nearly ever open position; Burba, Sele, Mondesi, Hernandez. This of course begs the question--Why haven't the Buckos won since 95'. Bad trades? Not really, the Man suspects something else (can't be seen but I am making the "drinky, drinky" sign right now. Buckos also get extra credit for drafting convicted felon Toe "Trailer Boy" Nash.

3rd Place: THE PHILADELPHIA CHEESESTEAKS

THEME SONG: Someday My Price Will Come

KEYS TO SUCCESS: Can just two players on a roto roster single-handedly drag their teammates to the CARP Cup? Probably not, but Carlos and Pedro will make it interesting. Delgado will win the MVP this year and Pedro (yawn) will win another Cy Young. I also like the pen, just a notch below the Buckos. Sasaki might break the 40 save barrier now that he has drinking buddy Suzuki on board, and Wickman will get the ugliest 30 saves this side of Percival. The out of position MI, containing OF's DeShields and Valentin should produce some impressive numbers as well.

KEYS TO DISTRESS: Don't look now but another monster has reared its head at C, the "Wilherty", bastard son of the "Flahardi". Don't hold your breath for double digit HR, combined. The OF has taken a step back. Cruz is annual trade bait even with his .242 avg. Quinn is coming off a horrible spring ready to begin his sophomore slump season and if either/both falter? Then its Billy McMillon to the rescue! After the 1-3 starters, the rest are truly awful. I'm surprised that GM Welshans didn't receive a complementary fruit basket from Ismael "don't call me a pitcher" Vales for even selecting him in the taxi round. Both Carpenter and Mays are hoping to regain the form that once made them mediocre roto players. The bench consists of Meche Wright, and Eldred sitting around and comparing scars.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Pedro. Did you ever think that a roto player at $72 would be considered cheap. Last year in the AL the AVERAGE era/whip was 4.50/1.47. Pedro numbers 1.74/.737 Look for more ridiculous numbers again.

GRAB A BEER WHEN: Fryman gimps back into the lineup. This "old head" put up career numbers last year. Don't look for a repeat, especially from a 3b coming back from a arm injury. With Branyan breathing down his neck Fryman might be looking to hang up the cleats.

DRAFT GRADE: B- GM Welshans didn't need much at the draft, then again, he didn't get much either. Sure bringing the 39 yr old Finley back into the fold was nice, but he also admittedly overpaid for the overhyped Sushi chef Suzuki. Velarde and Clayton were nice taxi pick-ups, but will only have a chance to contribute if a starter goes down with an injury.

2nd Place: THE BRIGHTON CREEPERS THEME SONG: I've Got Water In My Veins

KEYS TO SUCCESS: The Creepers 2000 OF may have been the best in CARP history and it returns intact. Both Ramirez and Gonzalez enter the season with something to prove, Manny, that he worth the $160M he got and Juan that he's worth more than the $140 he turned down. Those two could produce 100HR right there. Outside of Stewart, Damon and Erstad are the best 5 tool players in roto. Slot Branyan into the DH slot and the Creepers OF/DH won't miss a beat. The starting pitching also has incredible depth, if not talent. The catchers can play with anybody. Fordyce quietly had a huge year in 2000 14HR/49RBI in less than 300ab.

KEYS TO DISTRESS: The corner has fallen into serious disrepair. The Creepers were forced to reload when Palmeiro was released and Palmer was traded(that's 68HR's for those keeping track at home). The result, Olerud and Koskie?(That would be 23HR's). It's tough to win championships when you pin your hopes on the next Dave Kingman hitting 40+HR's in his first full season. Don't be surprised when GM Griffiths pulls the trigger later during the season sending some of that pitching for corner help, but the Man thinks it won't be enough to close the gap on the Steers.

PLAYER TO WATCH: The Dream Weaver. The kid just keeps getting better. By the end of this season look for 15 wins and admission into the elite club of pitchers in the AL.

GRAB A BEER WHEN: Dave "Yes I dumped Halle Berry" Justice lugs all that body armor to the plate. Justice posted career numbers last year at age 34! Can you say corked bat? Please, the injury bug is due to pay a visit. If he has more than 28HR this year I'll shave my head.

DRAFT GRADE: B The Creepers got who they wanted in Koskie, but by bringing him up first among 3b they had to pay. Bichette for $1 is a good risk. The Man likes Suppan as a former owner but Mercedes gives me the shakes. Even though GM Griffiths attempted to purge most of the alcohol coursing through his system prior to the draft, enough obviously remained for the taxi round--9 Pitchers (and that's being generous to Steve Woodard, calling that man a pitcher), What? Someone already took Tomko?

CARP CHAMPION: THE TEXAS STEERS THEME SONG: What A Long Strange Trip Its Been

KEYS TO SUCCESS: Before the Man began the Contenders, each team was ranked 1-7 in 6 categories (C, CI, MI, OF/DH, SP, and RP). The Steers ranked 1st in4 and 2nd in 1. After plundering the Brewers the past two years for the likes of Helling, Pettitte and Mussina the Steers starting pitching with both Hudson and Garcia is the best in CARP. Power, finesse, wins, innings, its all there. Pudge, even paired with Shakey, would be the best in the league. For example, Posada last year hit .287 28/86. Pudge hit .347 27/83 IN 142 FEWER AB'S. For this year at least, the mantle of best MI has been passed from the Brewers to the Steers. Alomar and Vizquel combine with Tejada (who will have the second best numbers of any SS this year) to be an unstopable force up the middle.

KEYS TO DISTRESS: At this point the only weakness the Man can see lies within the Steers bullpen. Sure Koch is a stud, but you must avoid the LaTroy. Hawkins is a train wreck waiting to happen. The Steers are also walking a thin line when it comes to the depth of the club. OF is o.k with Burks and Kapler looking to contribute but the pitching could get thin fast with a couple of injuries to Karsay and the creaking elbows of Nagy, Alvarez and Suzuki. Barring injury though, the rest of CARP should be playing catch-up with the Steers all season.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Mateo. Coming back from broken leg suffered last year Mateo will prove why he is considered one of the best young prospects in the game. Think 20/20 season.

GRAB A BEER WHEN: Karsay starts. Please, doesn't anybody in the Indians organization do their homework. Karsay began to break down last year due to strain on his elbow. He had Tommy John surgery in 95' and NOW they think he should be a starter?

DRAFT GRADE: B+ GM Wolfe knew the pressure was on this year and while he didn't ace the test he did pull the high "B". Alomar and Vizquel and Palmeiro may end up being the reason he edges the Creepers this year. Burks for $5 on any other team doesn't make sense, but on the Steers he fits as perfect injury insurance. Knowing that it was do or die this year for the Steer, Wolfe still had the foresight to draft Perez in the first round, a long term keeper.